Showing posts with label Space Economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Space Economics. Show all posts

Sunday, July 15, 2007

Colonization of Titan-- The Future Persian Gulf?

(Note: this is a continuation of the The Space Colonization Series)
In terms of potential locations in the outer solar system, Saturn's moon Titan is usually mentioned right off the bat. It is a prime location for human survival in the outer regions because of its great abundance of all the necessary organic materials. The atmosphere contains large amounts of methane and nitrogen and it is believed that both liquid water and liquid ammonia are locked under the surface and occasionally pushed out through volcanic activity. Water and methane could be used as both propellants for a rocket and for a colony's power supply. Nitrogen, methane, and ammonia could be used as a source of fertilizer for growing food. The water could also obviously be used for drinking and for oxygen.

Now, looking in an even more speculative nature, Titan would be a major target for a future fusion based economy. We will soon run out of oil on Earth and we will inevitably need to find another source of power. If we ever make a break through on fusion power we know we will need two things that aren't readily available on Earth: helium-3 and deuterium. Saturn has a relatively high amount of these resources available and Titan would be an ideal spot to mine and collect from.

True color image of Titan taken by Cassini. More images of Titan from NASA.

The Cold, Hard Facts

True color image of Titan Surface taken by Huygens. More information from NASA.
Titan is cold. Really, really cold. The temperature is about -180 degrees Celsius. This type of cold also isn't quite as easy to deal with as the cold we would encounter in space or on the Moon. No, Titan's thick atmosphere makes this very difficult. Thermo-insulation becomes a much bigger problem. Fortunately, this problem could potentially be solved be building a protective layer around a habitat. By evacuating a space in between an outer shell and the inner habitat heat loss could be lowered to a more manageable level akin to a lunar habitat's requirements for thermal insulation.

The thick atmosphere does provide some advantages, however. At about 1.47 times the atmospheric pressure of Earth--equivalent to 5 meters under water on Earth--the atmosphere would protect inhabitants from potentially deadly doses of radiation that would be of concern on outposts on Mars, the Moon, or the asteroids. The quality of Titan's atmosphere also greatly decreases the engineering complexity of any aerobraking and landing techniques.

At least one more advantage exists for its atmosphere when combined with Titan's relatively low gravity of 0.14 g's. This unique combination makes flying much easier. So much easier, in fact, that a human could simply strap on some wings and take flight (with a pressurized suit on of course). Other than for human enjoyment and recreation, easier flight requirements could be taken advantage of for more near-term, exploratory missions like sending probes that float around the atmosphere in blimps, hot air balloons, or autonomous planes. Alas, like the atmosphere of Titan, the low gravity also has its disadvantages. Namely the health problems associated with low-g environments.

Personally, I believe Titan will never be more than a mining or research outpost but who knows? Perhaps it could some day be terraformed and become a bastion for thousands or even millions of colonists in the future. It does, after all, contain an abundant amount of the necessary organic materials needed for life as we know it. What do you think? Could you see Titan in our future?

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Tuesday, July 3, 2007

Colonizing Mercury

(Note: this is a continuation of the The Space Colonization Series)
I'll be honest; a colony on Mercury is out there--waaay out there. Many would naturally assume that Mercury could never be colonized or that even if we could it would be highly impractical. Right now I would most definitely agree with that statement but, in the future, as we expand our horizons and colonize our solar system that first rock from the sun may prove to be one of the key locations for supporting a space-fairing civilization.


What Does Mercury Have to Offer?
Image of Mercury orbiting around the Sun. Source: NASA.gov
Quite a few benefits actually. One of the biggest is solar energy. The close proximity to the sun could allow for Mercury to be a potential location for harvesting solar energy. The solar constant near Mercury is 9.13 kW/m² or 6.5 times that of the Earth or Moon. Now, with this extra energy it would be possible to power mass drivers (similar to a maglev launch system) and launch folded up solar sails carrying any sort of cargo or mined resources from the planet. Once deployed into space and unfolded, the solar sail would receive an added boost from the stronger solar constant--6.5 times the thrust to be specific. Mercury could also be used as the starting point for either interstellar travel or simply travel into the outer solar system using the added solar boost to speed the process along.

Launching mined materials from the planet could prove to be lucratively advantageous considering the composition of it. Mercury is the second most dense planet (behind Earth). As a result it indicates that anywhere from 60-70% (by weight) of the planet is composed of metals with the rest primarily being silicate. In addition, it is theorized that Mercury may have some of the highest concentrations of several valuable minerals and metals of any surface in our solar system and in extremely concentrated ores on top of that. Other predictions include the possibility of the soil containing a large quantity of helium-3--an essential ingredient in a future fusion power plant.

Lastly, due to Mercury's prime location near the Sun, it could provide an excellent site for monitoring solar activity. A base could warn any traveling ships, other various colonies, or even Earth that a solar flare is approaching or a burst of solar radiation could make a certain area dangerous for the time being. A constant close-up watch of the Sun would definitely help us learn more about it and perhaps allow us to forecast any solar activity. Learning more about the Sun is definitely important and Mercury is the closest place to it.

How Could it be Done?

Colonizing and creating the necessary infrastructure would likely be both very difficult and very dangerous. This is not to say that it can't be done though. Long days (176 Earth days), no real atmosphere, and a lack of organic materials/elements requiring importation make it difficult but not impossible. This is because of the relatively static climate of the polar regions. It would avoid the extreme variations of temperature that are hot enough to melt lead during the daytime and the nighttime bone-chilling lows of -180 degrees Celsius. In fact, the polar regions may also harbor the ever essential water-ice in permanently shaded regions inside craters.
Magnetic field of Mercury. Source: NASA.gov
Mercury even limits a couple of other major, ubiquitous problems involved in space exploration and colonization. Perhaps its most important advantage towards allowing for a habitat is its magnetic field. Though only about 1% of the strength of Earth's own magnetic field, Mercury's field deflects solar wind about 1000 km from the surface and this may be more than enough protection for colonists. The strength of Mercury's gravity is also another asset that places like the Moon or asteroids can't provide. At about .377 g's, Mercury has twice the gravity of the Moon and approximately equal to that of Mars. This is especially important because some scientists believe that .33 g's is all that is necessary to be acceptable to the human body over an extended period.

As a colony establishes itself the non-polar regions of the planet may end up providing more room for habitats and mining operations. Underground bases could potentially insulate itself from the extreme temperatures on the surface above. Traveling outside of the underground base could easily be accomplished during times of twilight. Due to the planet's very slow rotational period the window of time for exiting or exploring the surface would also likely be significant.

In the end I do believe that the colonization of Mercury is inevitable. Whether it is used to support some lucrative mining operation, outsource power, be the starting point of journeys to the outer solar system and beyond, manufacture anti-matter with fusion reactors, as a futuristic Alcatraz/Australia, or some combination of all them, it definitely holds a future and purpose for mankind. How long that is before it is I can't answer you but, regardless, it's still fun to imagine it. Personally, I think it would just be fun to watch a giant sun rise above the horizon during the Mercurian morning. What do you guys think?


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Friday, June 22, 2007

New Player in the Game: European Aeronautic Defence and Space Company- Astrium

Inside of space jet cabin. Source: EADS.net
It seems that Richard Branson and Virgin Galactic are going to have some serious direct competition in the near future. The European Aeronautic Defence and Space Company, or EADS for short, has recently announced its plans to enter the suborbital space tourism race [see announcement]. The project leader, Marc Newsome, has said that they would like to begin the project in 2008 and if they are able to do so then a first commercial flight would possibly be available by 2012. Marc Newsome will be in charge of designing the interior cabin which is said to have "highly innovative seats [that will] balance themselves to minimize the effects of acceleration and deceleration, ensuring the greatest passenger comfort and safety." The Australian born designer has been named by Time Magazine as one of the 100 most influential people in the world. As Creative Director of Qantas Airways, he has also been responsible for the design of their entire fleet including the Airbus A380 and I can say from personal experience that Qantas has, by far, been the best airline with which I have traveled.

Space jet floating in suborbital space. Source: EADS.net
The Flight

The flight will consist of two stages on a space jet comparable to a business jet sized vehicle and will carry four passengers. The space jet will take off from a conventional airport and normal jet engines will carry the craft to an altitude of 12 km when the rocket engines will be ignited. In a mere 80 seconds the rockets will have propelled the space jet all the way up to an altitude of 60 km. The ship will receive enough boost from the rockets to lift it to its peak altitude of 100 km where it will hover weightlessly for 3 minutes and give tourists an incredible view of the Earth. Passengers will get plenty of opportunity to catch a view with the 15 windows, each 30% bigger than a standard jet window. The jet will then make its descent slowly until the jet engines can safely be initiated. The jet will then land at a standard airfield. In total, the entire trip will last between an hour and an hour and a half.

Below is the promotional video of a flight from EADS Astrium:


Financing

Estimated to cost around one billion euros, the project will largely be supported by private capital. Return on investment will from the emerging and very promising suborbital space tourism market. Astrium says that the price per ticket could be anywhere from €150,000 to €200,000. Following five years of operation, EADS Astrium hopes to have claimed 30% of the space tourism market.

...

It seems that the private space industry is growing at an ever faster pace. I can only hope that this is just the beginning. My guess is that we will witness several other companies make announcements about entering the great private space race before 2012--especially if Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipOne and Bigewlow Aerospace's space hotels take-off (no pun intended). I do believe we are at the start of an exciting time period here.

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Tuesday, June 5, 2007

Why Mine the Asteroid Belt?

I had never honestly considered this question before until I read the article "A Billion Tons of Nickel" by Chad Orzel (In case you were wondering his article was inspired by a previous article of mine: A Floating City on Venus). The author brings up a good point: What advantage would mining the asteroid belt really have? After reading his article I honestly could not come up with a reason off the top of my head. I had just assumed it would be a great thing that one would jump at the opportunity to take advantage of.

He made an excellent point questioning the economic viability of such a mining operation:

Absent some project that requires vast quantities of whatever you can mine out of the rock, the main effect of this would seem to be a global crash in the price of whatever you can mine out of the rock. At which point, I don't know how your recoup your investment. This is barely Economics 101-- if you have a billion tons of nickel sitting around, and nothing to do with it, the price will be very low. We've done the experiment, after all-- ask the Spanish about all that New World gold...
Frustrated that I could not find a good answer quickly enough I decided to a little research and here is what I came up with:

He's absolutely correct. Though the article is missing the true incentive to asteroid mining. The key to asteroids are that they have a relatively high proportion of precious metals such as platinum and those in the platinum group. On top of that they also contain many other metals in high demand such as aluminum, copper, and titanium among many others. Here is a chart of the approximate composition of a C-type (Carbonaceous) asteroid (including potential values per metric ton in dollars). According to the chart platinum contains roughly 1,000 parts per billion in a typical C-type asteroid. This equates to about 2,000 metric tons in a one kilometer diameter asteroid or approximately $50 billion worth of platinum. Albeit the price of the metal would drop as more metal is introduced into the market but nowhere near the catastrophic affect that Chad proposes with the mining of nickel. This is simply because platinum is in very high demand and an exorbitant amount isn't being introduced. The other metals I mention could also conceivably be very profitable though likely not to the same extent.

Image of C-type asteroid 253 Mathilde. Source: NASA.gov

Now the situation he describes with the introduction of Aztec gold is a bit different than platinum. During that time gold was primarily sought after for its beauty and luster alone. Platinum on the other hand is used in jewelery and industry--especially in electronics. This should further resist a collapse in the metal's economy and perhaps increase the economy overall. Even a drastic price drop in platinum wouldn't be so bad. One can simply look at the history of aluminum. Aluminum used to be worth more in weight than gold. Then in 1886 a young engineer from Oberlin, Ohio named Charles Martin Hall invented a new method of extracting aluminum that eventually made it cheaper to obtain by a factor of 200. Clearly the economy wasn't ruined by an over-abundance of aluminum. This is because aluminum was rare in pure form but had many potential uses. The case is very similar for platinum.

At the end of his article he also left us with this:
(And circular arguments like "We need a billion tons of nickel to build space ships to mine the asteroids/ colonize the moons of Jupiter/ fly to Alpha Centauri" are cheating.)
And though the space enthusiast in me really wanted to justify mining the asteroids with this I knew he was correct; we have to be realistic and know how the world works. I believe I've addressed the incentive to mine the asteroids without using this cheating circular argument though. Thus since we have created a market for going to the asteroid belt we can now fairly use this argument! Because with the advent of mining operations we will indeed create a whole new 'space market.' Sending materials up into space is costly (currently around $12 million per metric ton). This means that billion tons of nickel now has a new purpose--building those spaceships to mine the asteroids. So, while gleaning materials to build ships that can mine the asteroid belt or to build colonies is not the initial reason to mine the asteroid belt it is a natural progression and soon does become an incentive in itself.

For more information on the potential of mining asteroids I suggest reading through these two sites:

Asteroid Mining for Profit (chart came from this site)
and
PERMANENT

Also, if anyone has any counter-arguments or questions I would definitely like to hear them. I tried to stick to the main points to maintain the brevity of this post so I'm sure there is still much to discuss if anyone is interested.

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Friday, May 4, 2007

A Floating City on Venus

Hellish Venusian surface. Courtesy NASA.gov
(Note: this is a part of The Space Colonization Series)
When space colonization is mentioned many things come to mind: Mars, the Moon, the future, terraforming, and even occasionally asteroids. One thing that rarely comes to mind, however, is Venus. And why should it? After all, Venus is Earth's sister planet from hell, registering a spicy 450 degrees C average on the surface or, in other words, hotter than Mercury. As if the temperature wasn't enough incentive to destroy any thoughts of visiting Earth's closest planetary neighbor, reaching the surface is practically impossible to do safely. Atmospheric pressure reaches 90 times that of ours on the surface or equivalent to being under 1 km of water. Venus also has a relatively slow rotation, completing one rotation every 243 earth days. Thus nights would last a very long time--not that you could see the sun during the day anyway. So, if Venus seems so obviously irrelevant to the idea of space colonization why make an article connecting the two? Well, it is Venus' hellish properties that ironically make it so appealing. The common misconception about space colonization is that colonies are built on the surface. The key to a Venusian colony is it's incredibly dense atmosphere. Remember, "...or equivalent to being under 1 km of water?" Well, things float on water; don't they...?

The Idea

The concept is actually based on a rather simple premise--buoyancy. So, we all know lower density materials rise to the top but how could this apply to Venus? Simply put, breathable gas has the equivalent lifting power on Venus as half of Helium's lifting power on Earth (about 1 kg per cubic meter). This property allows for breathable air domes to lift a colony in addition to their own weight. Tweaking the lifting power could also easily be done by storing helium or hydrogen (both extractable from the atmosphere) filled tanks. The Colonies would float at an altitude of roughly 50 km where the air pressure is equal to Earth's. At this altitude the former problems encountered with a surface colony start to disappear. The temperature chills to a much more normal range of 0-50 degrees Celsius or liquid water temperatures. This altitude also happens to sit above the thick clouds providing abundant solar energy. The clouds themselves are so reflective that pointing solar panels downward would provide almost as much energy as they would pointing upward. The solar power available above Venus' cloud top is approximately 1.9 times that of Earth's providing plenty of power for a potential colony. Ah, that sounds great, but the issue of incredibly long dark periods still looms doesn't it? Fortunately, Venus' atmospheric winds bail us out of that situation giving us a manageable 50 hour solar day and likewise, a 50 hour solar night. Increase the latitude of the 'Bubble' and everything could be packaged into an Earth-like 24 hour cycle.

Bespin from the movie Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back.
Other than the extreme density of Venus' atmosphere providing buoyancy, it also provides many important resources necessary for food and oxygen. Carbon dioxide and Nitrogen are very abundant in the atmosphere and could easily be harvested. Hydrogen can also be extracted from condensed sulfuric acid droplets, thus providing all of the basic elements required for human survival. Industrial minerals, also very important for maintaining an outpost or colony, could be mined from the surface. The hazards of reaching the surface drastically decrease in difficulty when making the attempt from an already established floating colony (or aerostat habitat). Large cables stretching the 50 km distance or less if the city lowers altitude temporarily could lift minerals from the surface directly to the habitat. Such a large habitat would have an incredibly large heat capacitance and thus be able to withstand momentary dips into much higher temperatures. So, it is starting to become clear how a floating city on Venus could theoretically become self-sustaining. That is great, but we are still left with a legitimate question: why should we want to go to Venus?!


The Reason

Obviously research of the planet is one simple and arguably lame reason to visit. That excuse could be made for practically anything. Everyone knows scientific research would take place. The type of research possible, however, could be highly relevant to our own planet. Global warming is currently a great debate across the globe and an in-depth look into Venus' extreme example of the greenhouse effect could open up many doors to explaining our own climate. Some other topics of interest include:

Before the runaway greenhouse effect, was early Venus temperate?
Did Venus once have an ocean? If so, did it ever have life?
What causes the geological resurfacing of the planet?
What is the nature of the atmospheric superrotation?
What are the aerosol particles in the atmosphere?
What is the —snow“ on Venus mountaintops?
What is the nature of the disequilibrium chemistry in the Venusian atmosphere? Could it indicate atmopsheric life?

View rest of paper [pdf]

[NOTE: pdf file is currently down so to view a transcript of the file I have decided to host it here.]
There are many other reasons to colonize Venus. First and foremost, human survival is dependent upon our expansion and colonization of space as Stephen Hawking recently made so clear. Venus is enticing for such a proposal for the three very important reasons: location, location, location. One, it is Earth's closest neighbor (excluding the Moon). Two, the colony is located in the dense atmosphere and thus it blocks harmful solar radiation naturally--problems that would be encountered on the Moon and Mars. The third is Venus' relative position to the coveted asteroid belt. It seems counterintuitive that Venus has a prime location for reaching the asteroid belt considering it is closer to the sun than Earth and the asteroid belt is even further than Earth but astrodynamics says otherwise. Here is more from the previous [pdf] explaining the concept in further detail:

In terms of flight time, Venus is closer to the asteroid belt than either the Earth or
Mars. This is shown in figure 3. For example, the minimum-energy trajectory to the largest main-belt asteroid, Ceres, takes 0.95 yeears from Venus, and 1.05 years from Earth. In terms of flight time, the closer you are to the sun, the more accessable the asteroids are. The asteroids are not actually close to each other, and hence if a habitat is to support prospecting and mining more than one asteroid, the asteroid belt is in some ways the worst location for it. An asteroid is as likely as not to be on the opposite side of the sun, and although the Earth is further from the sun, that does not put it closer, on the average, to any given asteroid. The higher orbital velocity of Venus actually makes transfer orbits somewhat faster, as well as increasing the number of transfer opportunities (that is, decreasing the synodic period).


View rest of paper [pdf]

Clearly, Venus presents a distinct advantage concerning mining asteroids, a potential 'gold mine.'

Establishing a floating city colony also gives humans much more 'practice' with inhabiting alien worlds. Learning to become air and land dwellers could prove to be a valuable asset in the future. Venus gives us a unique opportunity in regards to this because its gravity, at.904 G's, is only slightly less than Earth's. This means that colonists would not need to make frequent trips back to Earth to avoid bone loss or any other negative side effects of low gravity environments.

OK, but there are still problems right?

Of course there are. Many obstacles face a floating colony on Venus, though not as many nor the type that most would expect. The atmosphere is filled with sulfuric acid and other corrosive particles. Ceramics or some other type of layer would be necessary to prevent corrosion. Sulfuric acid fortunately has many industrial uses and could also be harvested for use. Scooping raw materials would also require quite an engineering feet, not to mention the whole project itself being a gargantuan task. The hazards overall are similar to any ambition of colonizing a planet. One big concern would be leaks. Fortunately, since the pressure is approximately equal on the inside and out, leaks of even large proportions would be slow and manageable.

Personally, I wouldn't say that colonizing Mars or the Moon first is a better or worse idea. Clearly those two options get the most attention and seem the most viable options to many. A floating city may not be as easy or as difficult as what has been proposed but the idea deserves merit. I believe the proposal is worthy enough for deeper consideration and more research. Hopefully my spreading of this idea has sparked a few of you with your own ideas. If anyone has any questions feel free to post them and I will try my hardest to address them and find an appropriate answer.

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Sunday, February 11, 2007

Money Backing the Private Space Industry... Part 3--Robert Bigelow

Continued from part 1 and part 2...
Robert Bigelow has expressed his disappointment in the development of manned space exploration. Growing up captivated by the Apollo 11 moon landing Bigelow has said, "It's been 30 years since the last beginning and we don't have anything to show for it but memories. People are tired of memories." This time he is doing something about it. After acquiring his fortune through his Las Vegas hotel chain Budget Suites of America, he pledged to spend up to $500 million by 2015 to give manned space exploration a much needed boost.

Bigelow envisions a whole new breed of hotels: Space Hotels. He has plans of offering a 330-cubic-meter space station (about the size of a 3 bedroom house) for a paltry $1 million a night. Guests will fly around the Earth every 90 minutes traveling 17,500 miles/hour and absorb spectacular views of the Earth and the surrounding galaxy. Learning weightless acrobatics will also become a common pastime for guests.

Already built, inflatable Nautilus modules.
These incredible ambitions are not from idle words either. His pledge to front $500 million for the project and the successful launch of Genesis I, the 1/3 scale model Transhab, have already been mentioned (see article) but what else has brought this project closer to reality than most would have ever thought possible? Well, for one, a deal has already been made between Bigelow Aerospace and Elon Musk's SpaceX to have the Falcon 9 launch an expandable space-station in the first quarter of 2008. A $50 million "America's Space Prize" has also been presented by Bigelow for the group who can create a spacecraft that can take 5 or more people to an altitude of 400 km, demonstrate the ability to dock with a Bigelow Aerospace inflatable space habitat, and repeat the trip within 60 days. The deadline is Jan. 10, 2010. The real prize though, is the potential $200 million purchase agreement for six flights of a selected vehicle. This can be awarded to a company after the deadline if it is preferred over the winner's design. In addition to the $200 million deal there is another $800 million available in options contracts for 24 flights over a span of about 4 to 4.5 years!

Like Jeff Bezos (see part 1), Bigelow displays sincere ambitions too. His life's dream is very similar to mine (see site purpose). He was only 15 years old when he vowed to devote his life to establishing a permanent human presence in space. Already aware of the difficulties it would take he knew he would need money--lots of it. Soon after his vow, he aggressively began laying the foundation for accumulating his wealth. He followed in his father's footsteps by studying real estate and banking at Arizona State University. Upon graduation, he immediately put his real estate education into practice by buying small rental properties. Three years later, in 1970, he constructed his first apartment house, a 40-unit building. For the next two decades he continued expanding by building dozens of apartment buildings and motels in the Las Vegas area. In 1988 he founded his lucrative Budget Suites of America.

Concept design of a completed space hotel.
All throughout this time, Bigelow kept space in the back of his head and only in the back of his head. The motivation for his ambitious expansion of his company was kept entirely secret. I didn’t even tell my wife,” he says. “She never knew. Because it’s possible that that kind of dream would never happen.” Serendipity struck in 1999 when Bigelow stumbled upon a NASA project for a radical new space station concept. The radical concept was called the Transhab project. In 2000 NASA canceled it for no apparent reason and so Bigelow bought the exclusive development rights. Bigelow believes he can accomplish what NASA couldn't because of his business expertise. "I’ve put together many, many projects involving a lot of money and a lot of people,” he says, and unlike NASA, “I’m used to doing things pretty darn well on budget and pretty darn well on time.

Thus ends my 3 part series on the money behind the dream. I hope you learned something new about the private space industry or perhaps became inspired yourself to join the industry!

To read more about the Transhab technology NASA provides a great article that covers the basics.

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Monday, February 5, 2007

Money Backing the Private Space Industry... Part 2

Continued from part 1...
This next group of backers may not qualify for the billionaire category but they have been huge patrons of the private space industry. Jim Benson started the trend of tech entrepreneurs moving into the commercial space market in 1997 with the founding of SpaceDev. SpaceDev provided the unique hybrid rocket motors used on the now famous SpaceShipOne. Benson recently stepped down as CEO/CTO of SpaceDev and announced his intentions of creating a new space venture appropriately named Benson Space Company. Named one of the "50 People to Watch in 2005" by San Diego magazine it is difficult to disagree.

One of the most influential figures has been Anousheh Ansari. Making her fortune through a Telecom company, Anousheh is most famous for helping fund the Ansari X-prize. The $10 million X-prize can be largely accredited for the jump start of the commercial space race. It lead to Burt Rutan's SpaceShipOne, backed by Paul Allen and winner of the X-prive, deal with Richard Branson and the founding of Virgin Galactic.

The prize has also pushed other non-winning companies such as John Carmack's Armadillo Aerospace. Most famous for his co-founding of id Software and for making games such as Doom and Quake, Carmack recently taught himself rocket engineering and is the lead engineer of his company. Armadillo Aerospace has ambitious plans of building orbital spacecrafts.

Elon Musk, another internet mogul other than Jeff Bezos, has also shown some serious interest in space. Using his fortune (estimated at $328 million) earned from his creation of PayPal, Musk founded Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX). SpaceX currently has one rocket, the Falcon 1, that was launched unsuccessfully this year but is scheduled for a relaunch this month. Elon has said he is willing to fund up to three unsuccessful launches before he decides to scrap the company. With success of upcoming launches there looks to be a lot of promise. SpaceX has already sold 11 contracts for flights on the various Falcon rockets. The company was recently awarded the Indefinite Delivery/Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) contract for Responsive Small Spacelift (RSS) launch services from the US Air Force that could be worth up to $100 million worth of launches.

Space Adventures founder Eric Anderson has taken unique steps to gleaning his wealth and power in the commercial space industry. He is unique because he has been the only one to start his entrepreneurial ventures in the actual private space industry and his company has thus far been the only company in the world to have sent private citizens to space. Joining several visionaries in the aerospace industry, Anderson's company has sold more than $120M in space tourist flights.

He has also currently developed and financed over $500 million in new projects, including a deal with the Ansari family's company, Prodea, and the Russian space agency (FSA) to develop a suborbital space transportation system called Explorer, a project for two global spaceports and another one for the first private voyage to the moon, set to launch in 2009. The Explorer will be able to transport up to five people to space and is designed to maximize the customer's experience of space travel. The two commercial spaceports have been announced for development in the United Arab Emirates and in Singapore. Most exciting, however, is the project for the first private voyage to the moon. The project is titled the Deep Space Expedition Alpha (DSE-Alpha) and has plans for sending tourists on a trip around the moon. Space Adventures has partnered with the FSA to use modified Soyuz capsules for the trip. Seats for the trip come at a hefty price though. Two commercial seats are available for an incredible $100 million. But, with another customer of theirs, Dennis Tito, paying $20 million for a trip to the ISS, a $100 million ticket price for a trip around the dark side of the moon might be the right price for a wealthy enthusiast.

The last figure in my series of money backers is Robert Bigelow. Bigelow is at the forefront of the private space industry and looks so promising that all the information about him cannot fit in this article alone. Continue coming back and looking for an updated article exclusively about his contributions to commercial space, including a deal for a launch with Elon Musk and SpaceX.

And... as always, feel free to comment on or ask about anything you please! I feed off of your input and always look forward to it. Thanks for everyone's contributions so far!

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Sunday, January 21, 2007

Money Backing the Private Space Industry... Part 1

While conversing with someone the other day I realized how little the common person knows about the private space industry. Sure, people have heard about Dennis Tito and Lance Bass paying an exorbitant amount of money to travel into space or even Virgin Galactic, Richard Branson's suborbital space tourism company. Beyond that, however, not much else is known. So, what kind of funding is behind this industry? Let's take an in-depth look:

Three billionaires alone are placing big bets on the future of space industry including the 6th richest man in the world: Paul Allen. Allen, who, according to Forbes, is worth more than $22 billion and admits to spending "in excess of $20 million" on SpaceShipOne, said he wouldn't be the sole investor in any space venture — although he might be willing to go in with someone else. Richard Branson, another multi-billionaire and founder of Virgin, hasn't specified the amount he is willing to spend but already has contracts in the works for a Virgin labeled SpaceShipTwo. Virgin Galactic plans to fly 500 passengers a year at about $200,000 each, to an altitude of slightly over 100 km.

Jeff Bezos, the 147th most affluent person in the world with a net worth of $4.3 billion and founder of Amazon.com, looks like a very promising backer. So far his company, Blue Origin, has been relatively quiet and has hardly made a rustle in the news but the company looks very serious. Blue Origin seems to be the biggest sleeper in my opinion and Jeff Bezos looks to be perhaps the most exciting prospect for the future of space. A source close to the Blue Origin group has said that the company has an ambitious 20 year plan:

They want to develop near-Earth space, not only from a tourism standpoint They see industry up there: space colonies, hotels, stuff like that. They want everything, not just ballistic trajectories.
Normally, this kind of talk would be considered an afterthought but when you realize the kind of money Bezos has and the kind of funding his money could bring with him things start to get interesting. Beyond the secrecy and the money behind the idea there is an interesting piece of Bezos' past that seems to solidify the seriousness and potential of this company:
In 1982, the high school valedictorian told The Miami Herald that he hoped to one day put space hotels, amusement parks, and yachts in orbit. Bezos biographer Robert Spector thinks his life goal is to "amass enough of a personal fortune to build his own space station." (courtesy wired.com)
Not only has Bezos accumulated a lot of money early (he is only 42), his net worth is still growing— and growing quickly. His net worth has almost tripled since 2003 (was worth $1.7 billion).

Even though Blue Origin is very secretive and has been more of a "think-tank" for most of its history it has produced some tangible progress. The New Shepard spacecraft has already undergone some initial test launches. The craft will eventually provide flights up to an altitude of 100km. To further substantiate Blue Origin's progressive attitude and genuine goals one need only look at their qualifications for employment:
"We are building real hardware, not PowerPoint presentations," said a job notice posted on the Blue Origin Web site in April, 2003. "You must have a genuine passion for space. Without passion, you will find what we're trying to do too difficult.

"There are much easier jobs."

Other than members of the billionaire club there are several other mega-rich people worth mentioning. Come back for part 2 to read more about them and the private space industry as a whole. As always questions and requests are invited. Be looking for part 2 soon!

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Monday, January 15, 2007

Space Elevators: A Future I can Envision.. Part 2

A Space Elevator (see original post...) seems pretty glamorous and looks to have lots of potential, but what exactly is that potential? A Space Elevator could provide a safe, consistent, and cheaper method of bringing cargo to space. This is the key to its limitless potential. With space easily accessible, permanent settlements could be established and always have supplies on demand. Expanding out towards the asteroid belt could also mean the start of outer-space mining operations. Gigantic solar satellites could also send enormous amounts of energy back to Earth and other satellites could increase communication abilities on earth.

Concept art of a space elevator. Source: CelestialMotherlode
One potential use or derivative of a space elevator that I thought of but haven't heard anything about is a construction site. Things can be manufactured in space with less difficulty than they can on Earth. Micro-gravity lets very heavy objects to be reasonably maneuvered. Enormous cargo ships could be put together quickly and easily. Such ships couldn't even feasibly be made on Earth and sent to space. The micro-gravity presents another interesting advantage too. Designs of such ships would not need to be able to hold themselves up. Without any gravity putting pressure on it, designs wouldn't need to be as sturdy and without an atmosphere aerodynamics is useless. Now, a fleet of huge cargo ships could be quickly and cheaply put together. Distributing materials also becomes even more efficient than with the space elevator alone. Since the cargo ships need not escape a planets atmosphere it will never require large amounts of fuel to transport goods. All it would need is one boost towards its destination and one back. Materials/people could be carried by these cargo ships/shuttles and simply be "dropped off at the door." Re-entry vehicles released by the cargo ships could release goods in similar fashion to the current Mars rovers' method. As you can see a space elevator could be the catalyst for an interplanetary highway.


The economics of a space elevator is also interesting. Currently the price/kg to send something into geosynchronous orbit is about $20,000/kg. According to Dr. Bradley Edwards, who has put forth a space elevator design, the price would drastically reduce to around $220/kg.

Costs of Edwards design (mentioned in part 1) has been estimated at $40 billion. In order for the design to be privately funded a $6 billion annual revenue would be needed and 2 million kg/year would be lifted into space. A cheaper estimate for another design was proposed at the 55th International Astronautical Congress in Vancouver in October 2004. The sticker price was a mere $6.2 billion. $6.2 billion may still sound extraordinary but when comparing that to the costs of bridges, skyscrapers, and other large projects it starts to look a lot more enticing.

Personally, I believe that the space elevator concept is pretty far-fetched but, then again, so was walking on the moon at one time. I can't say the space elevator will lead humans into a space-colonization age but I can say that it is a very worthy idea to consider.

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